'If Rafa wasn't here...': Novak Djokovic, clay and unfulfilled destiny (2024)

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Is it possible to have 24 Grand Slam titles and still feel a pang of regret?

If your name is Novak Djokovic, and the regret in question is about the French Open, yes. For almost two decades at Roland Garros, he has been the right man at the wrong time.

In the entire history of tennis, there has been one better male clay-court player than Djokovic: Rafael Nadal, who has won 14 French Open titles, and 63 ATP Tour events on clay in total.

Three-time French Open champion Mats Wilander puts Djokovic and Bjorn Borg, who won six men’s titles at Roland Garros in eight years between 1974 and 1981, level behind the Spaniard.

“I would rank it Nadal, and then Borg and Djokovic joint-second,” said Wilander, who is covering this year’s French Open for broadcaster Eurosport, in a conversation on Monday night. “Djokovic won three here when Nadal was pretty much unbeatable. I can’t put him past Borg, because he won six times, but I’d put him joint-second to Rafa.”

Were it not for Nadal, Djokovic would surely have a lot more than those three French Open titles. Nadal has beaten him here eight times, in two quarterfinals, three semis and three finals.

And now, with an injured Nadal finally out of the way, potentially for good, and the rest of the field inexperienced in the art of winning a Grand Slam, Djokovic’s body has failed him too.

A heroic five-set win over Francisco Cerundolo on Monday, which initially put him into what would have been an 18th Paris quarterfinal, instead sent him out of the tournament with a torn meniscus in his right knee. Casper Ruud, his would-be opponent, got a free pass to the semifinals, and Djokovic’s chance to get a different kind of closure at Roland Garros — an Olympic gold medal, which he has craved for so long — is in doubt.

His 17 quarterfinals have translated into three titles, which is still an outstanding record.

Only two male players have won more French Opens than Djokovic since the Second World War. Borg has his six, the last of which was 43 years ago, and Nadal has his preposterous 14. Three others have also won three — Wilander, Ivan Lendl and Gustavo Kuerten. Some of the most renowned male players in the world, including Jimmy Connors, John McEnroe, Boris Becker, Stefan Edberg, Pete Sampras and Andy Murray, all multiple Grand Slam champions, have never won at Roland Garros.

A fourth would have rubber-stamped Djokovic’s superiority over his fellow three-timers, but the fact that he won his titles in the era of Nadal gives him the edge in most eyes anyway, including those of Wilander himself.

There was even a French Open where Djokovic beat Nadal, and still didn’t win the title.

That was in 2015, when it felt like he was cursed to never be champion at Roland Garros, the one major that eluded him in his desperate quest to complete the career Grand Slam. Djokovic’s semi-final against Murray went to five sets and, in those days before Court Philippe-Chatrier had a roof, had to be played over two days, meaning he had no day off before playing Stanislas Wawrinka in the final. Djokovic eventually ran out of steam and lost to Wawrinka in four sets, having won the first.

The following year, Djokovic returned to finally win the title, but doing so and completing the career Grand Slam contributed to a mental and physical letdown that saw him not win another major for two years — a lifetime in Novak-land.

Even with these misfortunes, Djokovic is still the only thing resembling a rival Nadal has had at Roland Garros. He is responsible for half of the Mallorcan’s four career defeats at the French Open, and until last week — which carries an asterisk, given Nadal’s physical condition — was the only man to beat him here in straight sets. Djokovic would be forgiven for feeling frustrated that just as Nadal is bowing out, he too, having turned 37 last month, is not fit enough to compete for this year’s title.

Whatever happens from here on in, when you throw in six Italian Opens, three titles in Madrid and two in Monte Carlo, it’s clear Djokovic is an elite, would-be generational clay-court player. “A clay-court monster,” as Gael Monfils put it to The Athleticlast month.

Stefanos Tsitsipas, who lost to Djokovic in the 2021 French Open final, agrees. “With clay, you always think of Rafa as the dominant one, but Novak I think is not talked about enough on clay,” he said on Monday night. “He is definitely one of the best competitors and fighters on clay. I think he’s done incredible things on the surface — especially in the Rafa era, when he was able to beat him here and in other tournaments.”

Djokovic and clay isn’t something we hear about much, and as Tsitsipas says, the Nadal factor is a big part of this — who cares about three measly titles when there’s a guy who has 14? There’s also the fact that Djokovic has been much more successful on other surfaces. He has won 10 Australian Opens and seven Wimbledons, and his winning percentage on outdoor hard courts (85 per cent) and on grass (86 per cent) outstrips his, still hugely impressive, 80 per cent on clay. The man himself is aware that it’s not where he is at his best.

“Although I grew up on clay, it is not my favourite surface. I like to play on hard, then on grass, and then only on clay,” he said in 2021. “Clay is the kind of surface where it is unpredictable, and sometimes for my style of play, tempo, and rhythm it can be quite challenging.”

Ruud, the man he should have been facing on Wednesday and the opponent he beat in last year’s final, was plain about the nature of Djokovic’s unfulfilled destiny at Roland Garros: “You can definitely argue that Novak is the second-best clay court player of all time. I mean, obviously, Borg has more titles here than him, but Novak was always close, he always pretty much reached the final and ended up losing to Rafa.”

That this is the consensus in the locker room has been underlined by similar sentiments from many other players over the past few days — including No 13 seed Holger Rune, who missed out on a quarterfinals place in a defeat to No 4 seed Alexander Zverev. Rune said: “If Rafa wasn’t here, Novak would be the best clay court player. He’s won three French Opens, which is amazing.”

In tennis, being second-best means losing. So how does the second-best male clay-court player of all time build such a redoubtable legacy?

All players adjust to the surface they are playing on, but there are qualities that the best players possess that are universally effective. The hom*ogenisation of the sport’s three main surfaces over the last 20 or so years — grass getting slower; clay getting faster — has also helped players dominate across all three surfaces. Witness the three male players with the most Grand Slam titles all doing so in this period.

While Djokovic is his best self on hard courts, he’s still almost peerless on clay.

Tennis Data Innovations’ (TDI) overall Performance Rating takes into account the player’s shot quality, the percentage of shots they play in attack, and their efficiency in both attack (conversion score) and defence (steal score). It has Djokovic as by far the best player on hard courts (leading second place by 0.46) and ranks him second for clay (just 0.15 behind the leader, Zverev), based on his past two years of performance on the surfaces in ATP tournaments.

Even if the general makeup of his game — the flat forehand, the rock-solid backhand — makes him the archetypal hard-court player, he has qualities that are very well-suited to clay.

One is his durability.

Just ask Carlos Alcaraz, who fell away after two gruelling sets against Djokovic in last year’s semi-final here. Alcaraz won the second set but then started suffering badly from cramp and ended up losing both the third and fourth sets 6-1, saying that the cramps were occasioned less by physical punishment, and more the intense mental pressure of facing Djokovic on the red stuff.

“He’s really tough on every surface, but here on clay he puts so much pressure on you in every point,” says Alcaraz. “In every point — the first point to the last one you have to play long rallies, like seven, eight, nine balls. Every rally, you have to be at your best level.

“Last year I couldn’t finish the match at my 100 per cent because, after just two sets, I was down on intensity. For him, it was normal.”

Djokovic’s physicality and defensive skills are born out by the numbers. Steal score, which is how TDI measures how often a player has won the point when they are in defence, puts Djokovic at 38 per cent on clay courts compared to 36 per cent on hard. Both figures are significantly above the tour average for the previous 52 weeks on all surfaces, which is 34 per cent.

We saw this in action in Djokovic’s final couple of matches at Roland Garros this year.

Against 30th seed Lorenzo Musetti at the weekend, Djokovic earned himself three set points in the fourth set with some outstanding defence that ended with a devastating angled backhand. To achieve the decisive break of serve in the fifth set against No 23 seed Cerundolo, meanwhile, he clung on in the game by winning a point he looked out of on several occasions before somehow stealing it when his opponent was hustled into an error. Earlier, he rescued a terrific passing shot with a flying volley (while playing on one functioning knee).

“I had to hit my best shot every single time,” a rueful Cerundolo said afterwards. “If you don’t hit well, he (will) crush you.”

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Djokovic provides the Shot of the Day 👀#RolandGarros pic.twitter.com/K3Ct38W9wn

— Roland-Garros (@rolandgarros) June 3, 2024

Michael Chang, the 1989 French Open champion (and he of the underarm serve heard around the world), says that Djokovic’s physicality and defensive skills have been especially useful on clay, which he feels is “the most different and most demanding of all the surfaces.”

“The French Open is, by far, on the men’s side the most physically demanding tournament of the year. You can play unbelievable tennis but if you’re not in shape for a two-week tournament, you’ll come up short,” Chang says.

Chang was speaking to The Athletic on Monday, before Djokovic suffered his tournament-ending knee injury, and his words feel even more pertinent now.

As well as staying in rallies even more effectively on clay, the dirt also allows him to exploit his gift as the greatest returner in the history of the sport.

His percentage of service games won is at its lowest on clay, but his return hits its highest games won percentage on the same surface. He also uses speed, spin, and depth more effectively when returning on clay, partnering with the natural qualities of the surface to neutralise his opponents and get them into rallies where he will be favourite.

“The return on clay makes you feel a lot of pressure, because his ball comes back so hard and deep at you,” says world No 18 Karen Khachanov, who Djokovic beat in last year’s French Open quarterfinal and in the fourth round here in 2020.

One of Djokovic’s great skills on clay is his ability to adapt. His game, built on that rock-solid backhand and an angular but relatively flat forehand, is perfect for hard courts. Thriving on clay means making tweaks.

“You see Novak every day on a hard court — he hits a clean ball, not too much topspin. Not too fast. Which then makes him a complete animal to be able to win on clay,” says Wilander, who won seven Grand Slams in all. “The fact he keeps doing this over and over again is why I put him up there with Borg on clay.”

Wilander says that Djokovic’s ability to morph his forehand to suit the surface he’s playing on is crucial.

“On grass he hits it flatter, so on clay the spin comes sort of out of nowhere and there’s a lot of surprise, whereas Nadal hits it (his forehand) like that all the time. Novak only does it when he feels like he has the upper hand, and when he adds that kind of spin, the opponent goes, ‘Woah, where did that come from?’.”

That ability to change his game is his greatness, Wilander says, on clay and across the board, and Djokovic’s completeness is exemplified by him being the only male player to have won all four Grand Slams a minimum of three times each.

Djokovic’s peers, who have struggled to master all of the sport’s surfaces, are in awe of his versatility and adaptability. Grigor Dimitrov, the No 10 seed who finally made his first Roland Garros quarterfinal this year at the 14th attempt, says: “He’s one of the very few players that have been able to adapt to any surface and any changes over the years.”

World No 5 Daniil Medvedev, who has a love-hate relationship with clay, adds: “Novak’s game is more suited for grass and hard courts, but he’s an amazing player on every surface. That’s where I find Novak amazing. Even if his game might have been a bit more vulnerable (on clay), he still wins three (at) Roland Garros.”

“What is impressive with Novak is his incredible ability to switch surfaces and still play with the same kind of amazing consistency, not looking like he lacks anything,” Tsitsipas says. “I really feel like that’s the goal for us (other players) to aim towards.”

Because of his injury, Djokovic won’t get the chance to move clear of Wilander, Kuerten and Lendl and to within two of Borg in the final on Sunday — but if he returns to tennis in time for the Olympics, he will have at least one more shot at closure on the courts of Roland Garros.

The 2024 French Open will ultimately go down as another tale of woe for the Serbian, but to have achieved all he has on clay in the era of Nadal will go down as one of his biggest career achievements — even if, on this surface, the biggest winner in men’s tennis history came out second-best.

(Top photos: Corbis, DeFodi via Getty Images; design: Dan Goldfarb for The Athletic)